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Feinberg Forecast: Last Snapshot of the Oscar Race Before the New Year

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards, Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

* * *

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) — podcast (Jerry Bruckheimer)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
The Fabelmans (Universal) — podcast (Steven Spielberg)
Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century/Disney)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Tár (Focus)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

Major Threats
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) — podcast (Kevin Feige)
Women Talking (UAR)
Babylon (Paramount)
She Said (Universal)
The Woman King (Sony)

Possibilities
RRR (Variance)
Till (UAR) — podcast (Barbara Broccoli)
Living (Sony Classics)
A Man Called Otto (Sony) — podcast 1 and 2 (Tom Hanks)
Thirteen Lives (Amazon) — podcast (Ron Howard)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Todd Field (Tár)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Major Threats
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) — podcast
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Possibilities
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
S. S. Rajamouli (RRR)
Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Ron Howard (Thirteen Lives) — podcast
Chinonye Chukwu (Till)
Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Major Threats
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) — podcast 1 and 2
Adam Sandler (Hustle) — podcast

Possibilities
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Hugh Jackman (The Son) — podcast
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Will Smith (Emancipation) — podcast
Song Kang-ho (Broker)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)

Major Threats
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Margot Robbie (Babylon) — podcast
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) — podcast
Rooney Mara (Women Talking)

Possibilities
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) — podcast
Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu) — podcast
Zoe Kazan (She Said)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)

Major Threats
Tom Hanks (Elvis) — podcast 1 and 2
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Possibilities
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) — podcast

Major Threats
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Claire Foy (Women Talking) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Keke Palmer (Nope)
Carey Mulligan (She Said) — podcast

Possibilities
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Jean Smart (Babylon)
Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)
Laura Dern (The Son)
Charlbi Dean (Triangle of Sadness)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)

Major Threats
She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)

Possibilities
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)
Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver)
The Son (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Tár (Todd Field)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

Major Threats
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — podcast
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Armageddon Time (James Gray) — podcast
Till (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)

Possibilities
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
Close (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
Nope (Jordan Peele) — podcast
The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)
RRR (S. S. Rajamouli)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Close (Belgium)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)

Major Threats
Corsage (Austria)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Saint Omer (France)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)

Possibilities
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Bardo (Mexico) — podcast (Alejandro González Iñárritu)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Last Film Show (India)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
All That Breathes (HBO)
Fire of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Last Flight Home (MTV)
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)

Major Threats
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)
Bad Axe (IFC)
Descendant (Netflix)
The Territory (Nat Geo)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)

Possibilities
The Janes (HBO)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (Sony Classics)
Hidden Letters (Cargo)
Children of the Mist (Film Movement)
A House Made of Splinters (still seeking U.S. distribution)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
Turning Red (Pixar)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks)
Wendell & Wild (Netflix)

Major Contenders
Inu-Oh (GKIDS)
Strange World (Disney)
Apollo 10 1/2 (Netflix)
The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th Century)
The Bad Guys (Universal)

Possibilities
Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal/Illumination)
Eternal Spring (ARTE)
Luck (Apple/Skydance)
My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)
The Sea Beast (Netflix)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick (Claudio Miranda)
Avatar: The Way of Water
(Russell Carpenter)
The Fabelmans
(Janusz Kaminski)
Babylon
(Linus Sandgren)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)

Major Threats
Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)
All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)
Emancipation (Robert Richardson)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Ben Davis)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Larkin Seiple)

Possibilities
RRR (K. K. Senthil Kumar)
The Batman (Greig Fraser)
The Woman King (Polly Morgan)
Don’t Worry Darling (Matty Libatique)
Women Talking (Luc Montpellier)
Nope (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Bardo (Darius Khondji)

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter)
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
The Fabelmans (Mark Bridges)
Living (Sandy Powell)

Major Threats
The Woman King (Gersha Phillips)
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Deborah Lynn Scott)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Jenny Eagan)
Empire of Light (Alexandra Byrne)
Till (Marci Rodgers)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)
White Noise (Ann Roth)

Possibilities
The Batman (Jacqueline Durran)
Blonde (Jennifer Johnson)
Tár (Bina Daigeler)
Corsage (Monika Buttinger)
Women Talking (Quita Alfred)
My Policeman (Annie Symons)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Diane Dwyer, Laura Kerrigan & Annika Schindler)
Armageddon Time (Madeline Weeks)

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
Avatar: The Way of Water
(David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua & Stephen E. Rivkin)
Elvis (Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
The Fabelmans
(Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)

Major Threats
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Kelley Dixon, Jennifer Lame & Michael P. Shawver)
Babylon (Tom Cross)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Bob Ducsay)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Sven Budelmann)
Tár (Monika Willi)
Triangle of Sadness (Mikel Cee Karlsson & Ruben Östlund)

Possibilities
RRR (A. Sreekar Prasad)
Thirteen Lives (James D. Wilcox)
The Batman (William Hoy & Tyler Nelson)
The Woman King (Terilyn A. Shropshire)
Women Talking (Christopher Donaldson & Roslyn Kalloo)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Holly Klein & Ken Schretzmann)
She Said (Hansjörg Weißbrich)

*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING*

Frontrunners
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Batman
The Whale
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front

Major Threats
Crimes of the Future
Blonde
Babylon

Possibilities
Emancipation
Amsterdam

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Frontrunners
The Fabelmans (John Williams)
Women Talking (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Simon Franglen)

Major Threats
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Göransson)
The Woman King (Terence Blanchard)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
She Said (Nicholas Britell)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)

Possibilities
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Nathan Johnson)
Devotion (Chanda Dancy)
Don’t Worry Darling (John Powell)
Nope (Michael Abels)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Tems
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Lady Gaga and Michael ‘BloodPop’ Tucker — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose
“Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro and Roeban Katz — podcast (del Toro)
“Stand Up” (Till) — Dernst ‘D’Mile’ Emile II and Jazmine Sullivan

Major Threats
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
“Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” (Avatar: The Way of Water) — Simon Franglen, Swedish House Mafia and Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott and Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton and Jahaan Akil Sweet

Possibilities
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren — podcast
“My Mind and Me” (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) — Amy Allen, Jonathan Bellion, Selena Gomez, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson & Michael Pollack — podcast (Gomez)
“Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick
“Dust & Ash” (The Voice of Dust and Ash) — J. Ralph — podcast
“Til You’re Home” (A Man Called Otto) — David Hodges & Rita Wilson

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Babylon
Avatar: The Way of Water
Glass Onion: A Knives Onion Mystery

Major Threats
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Thirteen Lives
The Woman King
RRR
Triangle of Sadness

Possibilities
Bardo
Don’t Worry Darling
Women Talking

Till
The Banshees of Inisherin
Don’t Worry Darling
Empire of Light
Living
Tár

*BEST SOUND*

Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front

Major Threats
Babylon
The Batman
Moonage Daydream

Possibilities
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Frontrunners
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
The Batman
Top Gun: Maverick

Major Threats
All Quiet on the Western Front
Jurassic World Dominion
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Possibilities
Thirteen Lives
Nope



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